Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level

Attila Csajbok (), Pervin Dadashova (), Pavlo Shykin () and Balázs Vonnák
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Attila Csajbok: International Monetary Fund
Pervin Dadashova: National Bank of Ukraine
Pavlo Shykin: National Bank of Ukraine

Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 2020, issue 249, 4-12

Abstract: In line with Kiss et. al (2006), we have constructed an analytical framework for the timely detection of risks connected with the rapid growth of consumer lending, based on an econometric model for the equilibrium level of household and consumer loans. Results from an estimation on a panel of countries were extrapolated to the Ukrainian banking sector. The model suggests that after two waves of strong deleveraging starting in 2009 and in 2014, the consumer credit stock in 2019 is still well below its equilibrium level in Ukraine, despite the recent strong nominal dynamics.

Keywords: consumer lending; equilibrium model; error-correction model; mean group estimator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 E47 G21 G38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2020:i:249:p:4-12

DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2020.249.01

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