Construction of the migration flows forecasting into Russian regions

Aleksandr Tarasyev
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Aleksandr Tarasyev: Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Economy of region, 2013, vol. 1, issue 2, 193 - 199

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic model that can predict the dynamics of migration flows between source countries and host regions, as well as the dynamics of wage levels there. The model is constructed within the framework of neoclassical economics and human capital theory in continuous time. Thanks to liberalization of migration policy in Russia in 2007, the model could be successfully employed to Russian regions and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which have visa-free entry regulations with the Russian Federation. Employing the model on statistical data, we forecast the number and origin composition of foreign labor force from the CIS into Russian regions for 2010-2016. The purpose of our further research is to classify migrants by skills.

Keywords: international labor migration; labor market; region; forecast; neoclassical theory; the theory of human capital; dynamic modeling; migration policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2013:i:2:p:193-199

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