The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey

Havvanur Feyza Erdem () and Rahmi Yamak
Additional contact information
Havvanur Feyza Erdem: Karadeniz Technical University
Rahmi Yamak: Karadeniz Technical University

Economy of region, 2014, vol. 1, issue 4, 246 - 254

Abstract: In economic literature, the idea that inflation increases inflation uncertainty, starting by Okun (1971) and later resuming as Friedman — Ball Hypothesis, has created new discussions about the degree and the direction of the relationship between both variables. The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty and compare the causal relationship for high and low inflation periods in Turkish Economy. The data used in the study are monthly and cover the period of 1988-2010. The whole period has been divided into two sub-periods as 1988-2004 and 2004-2010 to compare high and low inflation periods. In this study, in order to get data on the inflation uncertainty, the optimal ARIMA model was estimated by using Kalman Filter analysis technique. The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty was finally tested by using Granger Causality analysis for two periods.

Keywords: inflation; inflation uncertainty; Turkish Economy; Kalman Filter Analysis; Granger Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2014/Decem ... mber2014_246_254.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2014:i:4:p:246-254

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economy of region from Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alexey Naydenov ().