What Can Ex-Participants Reveal about a Program’s Impact?

Martin Ravallion, Emanuela Galasso, Teodoro Lazo and Ernesto Philipp

Journal of Human Resources, 2005, vol. 40, issue 1

Abstract: We propose a method for estimating the mean impact of an assigned social program when it is not feasible to do a pre-intervention baseline survey but it is feasible to track ex-participants. In our triple-difference estimator, measured outcome changes are compared between continuing participants and matched ex-participants, after netting out the outcome changes for a matched comparison group who never participated. With sufficient followup observations one can test the joint conditions required for correctly identifying the gains to current participants. We apply the method to a workfare program in Argentina. Significant impacts on participants’ current incomes are revealed.

Date: 2005
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