The Costs of Error in Setting Reference Rates for Reduced Deforestation

Patrick Doupe

Land Economics, 2015, vol. 91, issue 4, 723-738

Abstract: Setting reference rates for policy to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is challenging. This challenge is reflected in the number of proposals for reference rate design. In this paper I show how these proposals have basic structural weaknesses that increase the likelihood of reference rates being set with error. This leads to higher costs of reduced-deforestation policy. I propose that reference rates be designed to minimize the cost of forecast error. These ideas are illustrated through forecasting agricultural land expansion in deforesting countries.

JEL-codes: C53 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
Note: DOI: 10.3368/le.91.4.723
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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