 The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in CroatiaMirjana Čižmešija, Petar Sorić and Ivana Lolić Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, 2017, vol. 3, issue 1, 16-34 Abstract: This paper builds upon the Economist’s R-word (recession) index by forming a Croatian version of a media news-based economic uncertainty measure. Using the web archives of the four major Croatian news portals (Index.hr, Jutarnji list, Večernji list and 24 sata), an extensive database of as much as 531107 news articles is formed. The R-word index is obtained by calculating the monthly share of recession-related articles. This way Croatia is placed among the few rare world countries which have their own version of this index. It is found that the index is a leading indicator of economic activity in Croatia, preceding GDP growth rates by two months. Using rolling window correlations, the authors also prove that economic agents react to uncertainty shocks in the most intensive manner precisely at the onset of an economic crisis, while the correlation decreases in periods of more stable economic growth rates. Keywords: Business and Consumer Surveys; economic uncertainty; leading indicator; R-word index; recession (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:crebss:v:3:y:2017:i:1:p:16-34:n:2 Access Statistics for this article Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics is currently edited by Dragan Bagić, Ksenija Dumičić and Nataša Erjavec More articles in Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics from Sciendo |
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