Transformative Economic Challenges: The Impact of COVID-19 and the War in Ukraine on the European Union

Ivan Todorov, Angelova Gergana () and Aleksandrov Aleksandar ()
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Angelova Gergana: South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Faculty of Economics, Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria
Aleksandrov Aleksandar: University of National and World Economy, Faculty of Business, Sofia, Bulgaria

Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, 2024, vol. 70, issue 3, 71-82

Abstract: This paper aims to explore the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on the twenty-seven European Union (EU) member states, known as the EU-27. A vector autoregression (VAR) of quarterly data for the period 2020–2022 was employed to study the impact of the coronavirus and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on growth, unemployment and inflation in the EU-27. The results from the empirical analysis indicated that the war in Ukraine lowered growth and raised inflation and unemployment, while the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect growth, increased unemployment and decreased inflation in the EU-27. It may be concluded that the war in Ukraine shifted the EU aggregate supply curve to the left, whereas the coronavirus pandemic resulted in inflation-unemployment trade-off in the EU.

Keywords: European Union; COVID-19; War in Ukraine; Economic effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E63 H56 I15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:ngooec:v:70:y:2024:i:3:p:71-82:n:1005

DOI: 10.2478/ngoe-2024-0017

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