Dealing with uncertainty in predicting the flows of visitors in Romanian museums

Opait Gabriela (), Ilie Cosmin () and Capatina Alexandru ()
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Opait Gabriela: Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Galati, Romania
Ilie Cosmin: Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Galati, Romania
Capatina Alexandru: Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Galati, Romania

Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, 2021, vol. 15, issue 1, 170-184

Abstract: Understanding museum visitors’ behavioral patterns may help in predicting their number of visits. The aim of the research is to identify the trend models associated with the number of visitors, in 2012-2019, in 2 national museums in the top of the most visited museums in Romania: the National Museum of Natural History “Grigore Antipa” in Bucharest and the National Museum “Peles” in Sinaia and forecast the number of visitors to these objects in 2020 and 2021. Subsequently the same methods were used to analyze the total number of visitors to museums in Romania in 2012-2019 and to forecast the number of visitors for the years 2020 and 2021. The research method used was that of coefficients of variation, which aimed to determine the forecasts for the number of visitors through three types of models: linear, quadratic and exponential. However, Covid-19 pandemic dramatically changed the forecasts of visitor flows in the museums and the managers of these cultural heritage institutions had to cope with this situation.

Keywords: museum management; knowledge management; predictive analytics; museum tourism demand; cultural supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:poicbe:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:170-184:n:9

DOI: 10.2478/picbe-2021-0017

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