Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China

Zhihao Zheng, Shida R. Henneberry, Yinyu Zhao and Ying Gao

Agribusiness, 2019, vol. 35, issue 3, 301-328

Abstract: A complete demand system is estimated separately for urban and rural residents using a two‐stage almost ideal demand system–quadratic almost ideal demand system model and pooled provincial and time‐series data from 2000 to 2012. The estimated demand elasticities with respect to income and demographic variables are then used to predict the changes in the structure of food demand in China for the year 2030. Results of this study suggest that, as per capita incomes grow further while both urbanization and population aging continue their upward trends, the shares of expenditures on foods away from home are expected to rise while the shares of spending on foods at home would decline, and that at‐home food budget shares of grains are expected to continue decreasing whereas at‐home food budget shares of foods with animal origins and fruits would be on the rise. Thus, food security in China has been transformed into feed grain security.

Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21592

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:agribz:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:301-328

Access Statistics for this article

Agribusiness is currently edited by Ronald W. Cotterill

More articles in Agribusiness from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().