A short-run forecasting model for nitrogen fertilizer prices

Harry Vroomen
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Harry Vroomen: Agricultural Economist with the Resources and Technology Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Postal: Agricultural Economist with the Resources and Technology Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture

Agribusiness, 1991, vol. 7, issue 6, 515-522

Abstract: Regression and time-series analysis are integrated to develop a short-run price forecasting model for the retail prices of major nitrogen fertilizer materials. Time-series analysis is conducted to generate future values of the wholesale price of anhydrous ammonia, the source of nearly all nitrogen fertilizers used in the United States. These forecasts are incorporated as an explanatory variable into regression equations to forecast the retail prices of five nitrogen fertilizer materials for the spring, the peak demand season for fertilizer. Results show that this method can perform with reasonable accuracy for short-term forecasting purposes.

Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:agribz:v:7:y:1991:i:6:p:515-522

DOI: 10.1002/1520-6297(199111)7:6<515::AID-AGR2720070602>3.0.CO;2-R

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