Non‐Tariff Measures and U.S. Agricultural Exports

Yunus Emre Karagulle, Charlotte Emlinger and Jason H. Grant

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2026, vol. 48, issue 1, 48-86

Abstract: How much do non‐tariff measures (NTMs) affect U.S. agricultural exports? While countries maintain a large and diverse set of NTMs to safeguard the health of plants, animals, and humans, policymakers and regulatory bodies may neglect the impact these measures have on international trade. This paper evaluates the impact of two broad types of NTMs important to U.S. food and agricultural exports: sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs). We construct a new database detailing the more prominent SPS and TBT measures impacting U.S. exports as highlighted in the Office of the United States Trade Representative's (USTR) National Trade Estimate (NTE) report from 2007 to 2021. Using a theoretically consistent gravity equation, we find that SPS and TBT measures reduce U.S. agricultural exports by 34.5%, on average, equivalent to a 16.4% ad valorem tariff. However, we find little evidence that these NTMs significantly affect the probability of U.S. exports or export survival in destination markets (i.e., the probability of export failure) suggesting that these measures primarily impact variable trade costs and the intensive margin of trade.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:48:y:2026:i:1:p:48-86

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