Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance

Elizabeth A. Fraysse, Thomas W. Hertel and Roman Keeney

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2026, vol. 48, issue 2, 473-486

Abstract: Current science indicates that warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 will have ambiguous results for crop productivity depending on crop type and geographic location, whereas increased heat stress makes livestock and human labor less productive. The differential impacts across regions will alter comparative advantage and shift the patterns of global trade. This paper employs an economywide trade model to assess all three types of productivity shocks under a 3°C global warming scenario. We find that the widening agricultural trade deficits persist, even as the overall US trade balance improves due to enhanced investment inflows.

Date: 2026
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https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.70041

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:473-486

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