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The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence

Gregor Smith

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2006, vol. 39, issue 4, 1041-1072

Abstract: Abstract What explains the widespread fear of deflation? This article reviews the history of thought, economic history, and empirical evidence on deflation, with a view to answering this question. It also outlines informally the main effects of deflation in applied monetary models. The main finding is that – for both historical and contemporary deflations – there are many open, empirical questions that could be answered using the tools economists use to study inflation and monetary policy more generally. Qu'est‐ce qui explique la peur très répandue de la déflation? Ce mémoire fait un tour d'horizon de l'histoire de la pensée économique, de l'histoire économique, et des résultats empiriques quant aux effets de la déflation en vue de répondre à cette question. On fait aussi écho informellement aux effets principaux de la déflation dans les modèles monétaires appliqués. Ce qui ressort principalement de ce travail est que – tant pour les déflations dans l'histoire que dans le monde contemporain – il y a bien des questions empiriques encore irrésolues auxquelles on pourrait donner une réponse en utilisant l'outillage mental que les économistes utilisent pour étudier l'inflation et la politique monétaire plus généralement. spĕc'tre, n. thing that is thought to be seen but has no material existence; haunting presentiment (of ruin, war, madness, etc.)

Date: 2006
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2006.00381.x

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