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Fertility and the real exchange rate

Andrew Rose (), Saktiandi Supaat and Jacob Braude

Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2009, vol. 42, issue 2, 496-518

Abstract: Abstract We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate empirically the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically, a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to experience a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a number of other potential determinants. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point‐estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately 15% in the real effective exchange rate. On utilise une base de données quinquennales pour 87 pays entre 1975 et 2005 afin d'étudier empiriquement la relation entre fécondité et taux de change réel effectif. Théoriquement, un pays qui fait l'expérience d'un déclin dans le taux de fécondité peut s'attendre à une dépréciation réelle. On teste et on confirme que c'est le cas, en contrôlant un certain nombre d'autres déterminants potentiels. Il existe une relation significative et robuste entre fécondité et taux de change. Un déclin du taux de fécondité d'un enfant par femme est associéà une dépréciation d'à peu près 15% dans le taux de change réel effectif.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01517.x

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Journal Article: Fertility and the real exchange rate (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate (2007) Downloads
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