How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning

Paul Schoemaker

Futures & Foresight Science, 2020, vol. 2, issue 3-4

Abstract: Historians and scenario planners both examine societal developments over time, but from opposite vantage points. One group looks backward, the other forward. This paper argues that a deeper understanding of the methods and approaches of historical analysis can help scenario planners to develop better insights into the world ahead. The study of history stretches back millennia, while disciplined scenario planning has been around for half a century. By comparing historical analysis with scenario planning, the paper extracts lessons to improve narratives about possible futures, with linkages to the emerging field of counterfactual history. The practical challenges are examined using a 1992 scenario project about South Africa's future post‐apartheid. Reviewing the four scenarios developed then, with the benefit of hindsight now, shows how and why historical thinking can sharpen scenario‐oriented studies of the future.

Date: 2020
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https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.35

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:2:y:2020:i:3-4:n:e35

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