FERTILITY SHOCKS AND EQUILIBRIUM MARRIAGE‐RATE DYNAMICS

John Knowles and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

International Economic Review, 2019, vol. 60, issue 4, 1505-1537

Abstract: Female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect postdisruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the postwar rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.

Date: 2019
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https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12395

Related works:
Working Paper: Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics (2018)
Working Paper: Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics (2015)
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