Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics
John Knowles () and
Guillaume Vandenbroucke ()
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Guillaume Vandenbroucke: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University
Prolonged disruptions of the matching process can distort the apparent effect of the singles sex-ratio on marriage-market prospects. Contrary to the usual matching model predictions, female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect post-disruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the post-war rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.
Keywords: Family Economics; Household Formation; Marriage; Fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 E13 J12 J13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Working Paper: Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp18-04
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