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Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics

John Knowles () and Guillaume Vandenbroucke ()
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Guillaume Vandenbroucke: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University

Abstract: Prolonged disruptions of the matching process can distort the apparent effect of the singles sex-ratio on marriage-market prospects. Contrary to the usual matching model predictions, female marriage probabilities were 50% higher in France in the years after World War 1, despite a large drop in the sex ratio. We develop a model of marital matching in which composition effects in the singles pool affect post-disruption matching rates. When calibrated to French data from World War 1, this mechanism explains 2/3 of the post-war rise in female marriage probabilities as the result of better composition of the pool of single men. We conclude that endogeneity issues make the sex ratio a potentially unreliable indicator of female marriage prospects.

Keywords: Family Economics; Household Formation; Marriage; Fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 E13 J12 J13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Working Paper: Fertility Shocks and Equilibrium Marriage-Rate Dynamics (2016) Downloads
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