Where should we go? Internet searches and tourist arrivals

Serhan Cevik

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2022, vol. 27, issue 4, 4048-4057

Abstract: The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high‐frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel‐related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the United States. The results indicate that Google Trends‐augmented forecast models improve forecast accuracy by about 30% compared to the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and more than 20% compared to the multivariate model incorporating macroeconomic indicators.

Date: 2022
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https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2358

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Working Paper: Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals (2020)
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