The heterogeneous role of party affiliation in the runner‐up effect

Umair Khalil (), Mandar Oak and Sundar Ponnusamy

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024, vol. 39, issue 5, 952-959

Abstract: A recent finding establishes that second‐place candidates perform substantially better over third‐place candidates in future electoral races. We show that this estimated effect masks substantial heterogeneity with respect to the party affiliation of the candidates. Only runner‐ups without a major party backing in election t$$ t $$ have significant prospects over the third‐place candidates in election t+1$$ t+1 $$, in terms of either recontesting or winning. Our finding suggests that political parties and voters, while strategically coordinating on the runner‐ups in election t+1$$ t+1 $$, also take into account the party backing as a potential signal of their intrinsic quality.

Date: 2024
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