EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?

Michael Clements

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, vol. 47, issue 2-3, 349-382

Abstract: This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long‐run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12179

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:2-3:p:349-382

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West

More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2019-09-12
Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:2-3:p:349-382