Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?

Nikola Mirkov and Gisle Natvik

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, vol. 48, issue 5, 901-920

Abstract: If central banks value the ex post accuracy of their published forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might influence the current policy rate. We explore if “forecast adherence” has affected monetary policy in New Zealand and Norway, where central banks have published their interest rate forecasts the longest. We derive and estimate policy rules with separate weights on past interest rate forecasts and find that they have explanatory power for current policy decisions, over and above their correlation with other conventional interest rate rule arguments.

Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12321

Related works:
Working Paper: Announcements of interest rate forecasts: Do policymakers stick to them? (2013)
Working Paper: Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them? (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:48:y:2016:i:5:p:901-920

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