On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective

Markus Hertrich and Heinz Zimmermann

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, vol. 49, issue 2-3, 567-578

Abstract: We estimate the risk‐neutral break probabilities of a realignment of the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor, maintained by the SNB from September 6, 2011, to January 15, 2015, using put options and an option pricing model, which assumes a lower barrier for the exchange rate. We estimate probabilities considerably different from zero, even when the exchange rate traded far above the floor. We observe a drastic increase in the break probabilities up to approximately 50% shortly before the floor was abandoned. From an option market perspective, the credibility of the SNB in maintaining the floor was, thus, substantially lower than publicly claimed.

Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12390

Related works:
Working Paper: On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:2-3:p:567-578

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West

More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().