The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Lutz Kilian and Robert Vigfusson

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, vol. 49, issue 8, 1747-1776

Abstract: Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid‐1970s, analyze its determinants, and show that the linear model fits the data better.

Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (91)

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https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430

Related works:
Working Paper: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions (2016)
Working Paper: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions (2014)
Working Paper: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions (2014)
Working Paper: The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:8:p:1747-1776

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