Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data
Michael Clements
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, vol. 54, issue 2-3, 537-568
Abstract:
Theories of expectations formation sometimes suppose that agents make efficient forecasts given their information sets. We use individual‐level data to test whether survey respondents' forecasts are efficient. We assess whether there are systematic differences between forecasters in terms of their degrees of contrarianism, and the accuracy of their forecasts, and whether these are explicable by inefficiencies in the use of information. We find that forecaster inefficiency cannot explain persistence in levels of disagreement across forecasters, but there is evidence that the inefficient use of information is responsible for persistent differences in accuracy across forecasters.
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12867
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:2-3:p:537-568
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West
More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().