Economics at your fingertips  

Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data

Michael Clements

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, vol. 54, issue 2-3, 537-568

Abstract: Theories of expectations formation sometimes suppose that agents make efficient forecasts given their information sets. We use individual‐level data to test whether survey respondents' forecasts are efficient. We assess whether there are systematic differences between forecasters in terms of their degrees of contrarianism, and the accuracy of their forecasts, and whether these are explicable by inefficiencies in the use of information. We find that forecaster inefficiency cannot explain persistence in levels of disagreement across forecasters, but there is evidence that the inefficient use of information is responsible for persistent differences in accuracy across forecasters.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West

More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

Page updated 2023-11-07
Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:2-3:p:537-568