Estimating the Ozone Depletion Potential of Methyl Bromide

Murray R. Selwyn, James E. Georges and Alexander A. Georgiev

Risk Analysis, 1997, vol. 17, issue 1, 9-17

Abstract: Ozone depletion potential (ODP) represents the cumulative ozone depletion induced by a particular halocarbon relative to a reference gas (usually trichlorofluoromethane, CFC‐11). We focus on ODP estimation for methyl bromide. Previous attempts at its estimation have assumed that components of the ODP equation are lognormally distributed. By considering a wide range of modeling scenarios, we show that this restriction (which is based on computational convenience rather than experimental evidence) has obscured the true uncertainty in the ODP value. Moreover, when publishing point estimates for the ODP value, previous authors have given either mean or median values. We submit that a more appropriate choice for a point estimate is the mode since the distribution of ODP is skewed and since the mode is by definition, the most likely value. For each modeling scenario considered, modal values are given. In general, we find these ODP point estimates are considerably lower than those published elsewhere.

Date: 1997
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00839.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:1:p:9-17

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().