Effects of Uncertainties on Exposure Estimates to Methylmercury: A Monte Carlo Analysis of Exposure Biomarkers versus Dietary Recall Estimation
Ravi N. Sanga,
Scott M. Bartell,
Rafael A. Ponce,
Ana A. P. Boischio,
Claude R. Joiris,
Crispin H. Pierce and
Elaine M. Faustman
Risk Analysis, 2001, vol. 21, issue 5, 859-859
Abstract:
This article presents a general model for estimating population heterogeneity and “lack of knowledge” uncertainty in methylmercury (MeHg) exposure assessments using two‐dimensional Monte Carlo analysis. Using data from fish‐consuming populations in Bangladesh, Brazil, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, predictive model estimates of dietary MeHg exposures were compared against those derived from biomarkers (i.e., [Hg]hair and [Hg]blood). By disaggregating parameter uncertainty into components (i.e., population heterogeneity, measurement error, recall error, and sampling error) estimates were obtained of the contribution of each component to the overall uncertainty. Steady‐state diet:hair and diet:blood MeHg exposure ratios were estimated for each population and were used to develop distributions useful for conducting biomarker‐based probabilistic assessments of MeHg exposure. The 5th and 95th percentile modeled MeHg exposure estimates around mean population exposure from each of the four study populations are presented to demonstrate lack of knowledge uncertainty about a best estimate for a true mean. Results from a U.K. study population showed that a predictive dietary model resulted in a 74% lower lack of knowledge uncertainty around a central mean estimate relative to a hair biomarker model, and also in a 31% lower lack of knowledge uncertainty around central mean estimate relative to a blood biomarker model. Similar results were obtained for the Brazil and Bangladesh populations. Such analyses, used here to evaluate alternative models of dietary MeHg exposure, can be used to refine exposure instruments, improve information used in site management and remediation decision making, and identify sources of uncertainty in risk estimates.
Date: 2001
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.215157
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:21:y:2001:i:5:p:859-859
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().