Forecasting Spanish Natural Life Expectancy

Montserrat Guillen and Antoni Vidiella‐i‐Anguera

Risk Analysis, 2005, vol. 25, issue 5, 1161-1170

Abstract: Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long‐term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age‐gender‐specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log‐bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975–1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality‐gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00671.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:25:y:2005:i:5:p:1161-1170

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().