Development and Application of a Stochastic Epidemic Model for the Transmission of Salmonella Typhimurium at the Farm Level of the Pork Production Chain

Ilias Soumpasis and Francis Butler

Risk Analysis, 2009, vol. 29, issue 11, 1521-1533

Abstract: In previous work a deterministic model for the compartment level was built, taking into account the two different syndromes with which Salmonella Typhimurium appears at pig farms. Based on this model, a stochastic one was built in this work that simulated different compartmental sizes, taking into account compartments of 200 to 400 pigs. Multiple scenarios of starting conditions of infection (SCI) ranging from 0.25 to 100% were tested for each population size. The effect of each of these two factors on the probability of disease extinctions and the prevalence of each of the classes of the model and the risk groups of pigs were estimated. The results showed that the compartment population had an inverse effect on the probability of disease extinction. On the other hand, low SCI resulted in high levels of early extinctions reaching 45%, while higher SCI led to high levels of late extinctions. Early extinctions resulted in the absence of the pathogen from the compartment, while late extinctions did not assure it. This effect shows that reducing the population of the compartment combined with appropriate cleaning and good farming practices could have a positive effect in the reduction of the risk of introducing S. Typhimurium into the slaughtering procedure. On the other hand, the profile of seroprevalence at slaughter age allows for risk characterization of the farm, given the relative stability and the small variation for higher SCI.

Date: 2009
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01274.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:11:p:1521-1533

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