A Methodology for Modeling Regional Terrorism Risk

Samrat Chatterjee and Mark D. Abkowitz

Risk Analysis, 2011, vol. 31, issue 7, 1133-1140

Abstract: Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well‐being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all‐hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man‐made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event‐based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States.

Date: 2011
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01565.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:7:p:1133-1140

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