Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

Gregory Levitin and Kjell Hausken

Risk Analysis, 2012, vol. 32, issue 2, 304-318

Abstract: This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.

Date: 2012
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01657.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:2:p:304-318

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