A Systems Approach to the Policy‐Level Risk Assessment of Exotic Animal Diseases: Network Model and Application to Classical Swine Fever

João Delgado, Simon Pollard, Emma Snary, Edgar Black, George Prpich and Phil Longhurst

Risk Analysis, 2013, vol. 33, issue 8, 1454-1472

Abstract: Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy‐level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.

Date: 2013
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01934.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:8:p:1454-1472

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