Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis for a Weed Risk Assessment System

Barney P. Caton, Anthony L. Koop, Larry Fowler, Leslie Newton and Lisa Kohl

Risk Analysis, 2018, vol. 38, issue 9, 1972-1987

Abstract: Weed risk assessments (WRA) are used to identify plant invaders before introduction. Unfortunately, very few incorporate uncertainty ratings or evaluate the effects of uncertainty, a fundamental risk component. We developed a probabilistic model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of uncertainty on the outcomes of a question‐based WRA tool for the United States. In our tool, the uncertainty of each response is rated as Negligible, Low, Moderate, or High. We developed the model by specifying the likelihood of a response changing for each uncertainty rating. The simulations determine if responses change, select new responses, and sum the scores to determine the risk rating. The simulated scores reveal potential variation in WRA risk ratings. In testing with 204 species assessments, the ranges of simulated risk scores increased with greater uncertainty, and analyses for most species produced simulated risk ratings that differed from the baseline WRA rating. Still, the most frequent simulated rating matched the baseline rating for every High Risk species, and for 87% of all tested species. The remaining 13% primarily involved ambiguous Low Risk results. Changing final ratings based on the uncertainty analysis results was not justified here because accuracy (match between WRA tool and known risk rating) did not improve. Detailed analyses of three species assessments indicate that assessment uncertainty may be best reduced by obtaining evidence for unanswered questions, rather than obtaining additional evidence for questions with responses. This analysis represents an advance in interpreting WRA results, and has enhanced our regulation and management of potential weed species.

Date: 2018
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