Socioeconomic Risk in Development of Energy Systems

Ion Ursu, Dan Vamanu, Adrian Gheorghe and Ionut Purica

Risk Analysis, 1985, vol. 5, issue 4, 315-326

Abstract: A soft mathematical model, taking stock of the stochastic and cooperative features of the economy of thinking in the decision making, is aggregated to unveil hidden connections between energy policy and the energy technology choices of an establishment. Starting from several assumptions on the nature of the collective decisional behavior, one obtains a probabilistic interpretation of the mechanism of penetration of energy technologies. The probability that the establishment bets on a certain technological profile is given as a solution to a Fokker‐Planck equation accounting for the decision game. It provides a topological variety that accomodates possible states of the system and their trajectories, and indicates ways in which different attractors drive the technology choice in the space of the energy policy. In this framework, a series of concepts (i.e., logistic evolution, resilience, stability, risks of disruption or crisis, energy security) can find in a natural way strikingly intuitive interpretations. Strategic games are possible on this ground, confirming facts of life and also showing predictive power. The complex and difficult to manage interdependence between energy policy and technology appears as a challenge to the long‐term planning of alternative energy systems. To meet the challenge, preparedness for changes through a large freedom of choice on the technological options appears as a necessary complement to the faithful observance of the market drives, which stresses the importance of having available perceptive, coherent, reliable, and responsible mechanisms of decision making.

Date: 1985
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00187.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:5:y:1985:i:4:p:315-326

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Risk Analysis from John Wiley & Sons
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().