Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment

Kenneth T. Bogen and Robert C. Spear

Risk Analysis, 1987, vol. 7, issue 4, 427-436

Abstract: An integrated, quantitative approach to incorporating both uncertainty and interindividual variability into risk prediction models is described. Individual risk R is treated as a variable distributed in both an uncertainty dimension and a variability dimension, whereas population risk I (the number of additional cases caused by R) is purely uncertain. I is shown to follow a compound Poisson‐binomial distribution, which in low‐level risk contexts can often be approximated well by a corresponding compound Poisson distribution. The proposed analytic framework is illustrated with an application’to cancer risk assessment for a California population exposed to 1,2‐dibromo‐3‐chloropropane from ground water.

Date: 1987
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https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00480.x

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:4:p:427-436

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