HOW SIZE OF TARGET AVALANCHES INFLUENCES PREDICTION EFFICIENCY

Alexander Shapoval and M. G. Shnirman ()
Additional contact information
M. G. Shnirman: International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory, Warshavkoye shosse, 79, kor. 2, Moscow, 117556, Russia

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2006, vol. 17, issue 12, 1777-1790

Abstract: Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld [Phys. Rev. Lett.59, 381 (1987)] introduced their sand-pile (BTW sand-pile) as the cellular automata coming to their critical state without tuning any inner model parameters. The main model features deal with grains falling slowly onto the two-dimensional lattice and a quick deterministic transport of the superfluous grains to the boundary. The simplest modifications of the BTW sand-pile develop a random transport mechanism instead of a deterministic one. The model transportation of the grains generates avalanches. We find that before the big avalanches the height of the pile increases and the singular grains organize themselves in special clusters. These observations lead to the formal algorithm that predicts the big avalanches in advance with a certain efficiency. However the efficiency for the BTW sand-pile is worse than that for its stochastic modifications.

Keywords: Sand-pile; avalanches (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0129183106010212
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:17:y:2006:i:12:n:s0129183106010212

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0129183106010212

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC) is currently edited by H. J. Herrmann

More articles in International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().