INVESTIGATION OF ELECTION RESULTS, NUMBERS OF PARTY MEMBERS, AND OPINION POLLS IN GERMANY

Johannes J. Schneider () and Christian Hirtreiter
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Johannes J. Schneider: Department of Physics, Mathematics, and Computer Science, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Staudinger Weg 7, 55099 Mainz, Germany
Christian Hirtreiter: Faculty of Chemistry, University of Regensburg, Universitaetsstrasse 31, 93053 Regensburg, Germany

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2008, vol. 19, issue 03, 441-452

Abstract: Our publication focuses on two different but related topics in politics: in the first part of this publication, we investigate the influence of election results in the elections for the parliaments of the German states and for the German Diet (federal parliament) on the member numbers of the largest parties in the various states. In the second part of this publication, we consider the correlations between opinion polls and election results and focus on the question whether real election results can be predicted by opinion polls.

Keywords: Sociophysics; party; election; opinion poll; opportunism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183108012236

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