VOTERS' FICKLENESS: A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Nino Boccara ()
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Nino Boccara: Department of Physics, University of Illinois, Chicago, USA;

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2010, vol. 21, issue 02, 149-158

Abstract: This paper presents a spatial agent-based model in order to study the evolution of voters' choice during the campaign of a two-candidate election. Each agent, represented by a point inside a two-dimensional square, is under the influence of its neighboring agents, located at a Euclidean distance less than or equal tod, and under the equal influence of both candidates seeking to win its support. Moreover, each agent located at timetat a given point moves at the next timestep to a randomly selected neighboring location distributed normally around its position at timet. Besides their location in space, agents are characterized by their level of awareness, a reala ∈ [0, 1], and their opinionω ∈ {-1, 0, +1}, where-1and+1represent the respective intentions to cast a ballot in favor of one of the two candidates while 0 indicates either disinterest or refusal to vote. The essential purpose of the paper is qualitative; its aim is to show that voters' fickleness is strongly correlated to the level of voters' awareness and the efficiency of candidates' propaganda.

Keywords: Agent-based model; opinion formation; voting process; fickleness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1142/S012918311001494X

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