EXPLORATION OF THE PARAMETER SPACE IN AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS SPREAD: EMERGENCE OF DRUG RESISTANCE IN DEVELOPING VS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Aquino L. Espindola (), Daniel Girardi (), Thadeu J. P. Penna (), Chris T. Bauch (), Alexandre S. Martinez () and Brenno C. T. Cabella ()
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Aquino L. Espindola: Departmento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Exatas-ICEx, Universidade Federal Fluminense Volta Redonda, RJ, 27.213-250, Brazil
Daniel Girardi: Departmento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Exatas-ICEx, Universidade Federal Fluminense Volta Redonda, RJ, 27.213-250, Brazil
Thadeu J. P. Penna: Departmento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Exatas-ICEx, Universidade Federal Fluminense Volta Redonda, RJ, 27.213-250, Brazil;
Chris T. Bauch: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2K1, Canada
Alexandre S. Martinez: National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems, Brazil;
Brenno C. T. Cabella: Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida dos Bandeirantes, 3900, 14.040-901, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2012, vol. 23, issue 06, 1-9

Abstract: In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

Keywords: Computational epidemiology; tuberculosis; cellular automata; stochastic models; 87.23.Cc; 05.10.-a; 05.10.Ln (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183112500465

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