Improving epidemic control strategies by extended detection

Paweł Karp (), Bartłomiej Dybiec () and Adam Kleczkowski ()
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Paweł Karp: Marian Smoluchowski Institute of Physics and Mark Kac Center for Complex Systems Research, Jagiellonian University, ul. Reymonta 4, 30–059 Kraków, Poland
Bartłomiej Dybiec: Marian Smoluchowski Institute of Physics and Mark Kac Center for Complex Systems Research, Jagiellonian University, ul. Reymonta 4, 30–059 Kraków, Poland
Adam Kleczkowski: Department Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2014, vol. 25, issue 04, 1-12

Abstract: Majority of epidemics eradication programs work in preventive responsive way. The lack of exact information about epidemiological status of individuals makes responsive actions less efficient. Here, we demonstrate that additional tests can significantly increase the efficiency of "blind" treatment (vaccination or culling). Eradication strategy consisting of "blind" treatment in very limited local neighborhood supplemented by extra tests in a little bit larger neighborhood is able to prevent invasion of even highly infectious diseases and to achieve this at a cost lower than for the "blind" strategy. The effectiveness of the extended strategy depends on such parameters as the test efficiency and test cost.

Keywords: Epidemiological modeling; disease spread; stochastic modeling; epidemiological control; 87.55.K-; 05.50.+q; 87.23.Cc; 89.75.Hc (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183113501064

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