Modeling the evolution of countries and ethnic groups

Kjell Hausken

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2020, vol. 31, issue 01, 1-15

Abstract: Two models of population growth, without and with competitive and beneficial interaction between populations, are applied to analyze the evolution of populations and subpopulations relative to the world average. Norway’s population grows less than the world average. Applying the least squares method against the 1970–2018 empirics, the model predicts that Norway’s immigrants grow exponentially, exceeding 50% of Norway’s 2053 population. Other effects may influence the growth dynamics in the near future, causing different outcomes. The logistic interactive model quantifies the beneficial impact of nonimmigrants on immigrants. South Africa’s population grows more than the world average. South Africa’s white population grows mostly convexly, and similarly to the world average during 1950–1975. After a maximum in 1995, approximately zero growth occurs toward 2018. The logistic interactive model estimates increase of the white population toward a maximum, and thereafter slight decrease toward a horizontal asymptote. The model estimates beneficial impact from the white population on South Africa’s nonwhite population, and competitive opposite impact. Zimbabwe’s population also grows more than the world average. Zimbabwe’s white population grows more than the world average during 1950–1975, and thereafter decreases abruptly and asymptotically toward zero. The implication is overall negative growth during 1950–2018. Assuming different parameter values for 1950–1974 and 1975–2018, the logistic interactive model implies better curve fitting due to allowing the two populations to impact each other competitively or beneficially.

Keywords: Population; growth; ethnic groups; immigration; competition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0129183120500084
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:31:y:2020:i:01:n:s0129183120500084

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0129183120500084

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC) is currently edited by H. J. Herrmann

More articles in International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().