An early estimation of the number of affected people in South Asia due to Covid-19 pandemic using susceptible, infected and recover model

Md. Enamul Hoque ()
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Md. Enamul Hoque: Department of Physics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2020, vol. 31, issue 10, 1-7

Abstract: The Susceptible, Infected and Recover (SIR) model is a very simple model to estimate the dynamics of an epidemic. In the current pandemic due to Covid-19, the SIR model has been used to estimate the dynamics of infection for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and compared with that of China. Numerical solutions are used to obtain the value of parameters for the SIR model. It is predicted that the active case in Pakistan due to the SARS-CoV-2 will be comparable with that in China whereas it will be low for Bangladesh and India. The basic reproduction number, with fluctuations, for South Asian countries are predicted to be less than that of China. The susceptible population is also estimated to be under a million for Bangladesh and India but it becomes very large for Pakistan.

Keywords: SIR model; Covid-19; coronavirus; pandemic; reproduction number; South Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183120501405

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