COVID-19 cases in countries and territories at onset days as function of external tourism inflows

J. Hernández-Casildo (), E. Hernández-Ramírez (), M. del Castillo-Escribano (), J. A. Ruiz-Gayosso (), M. del Castillo-Mussot and A. P. Riascos ()
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J. Hernández-Casildo: Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México City, 07738, México
E. Hernández-Ramírez: Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México City, 04510, México
M. del Castillo-Escribano: Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, 58190, México
J. A. Ruiz-Gayosso: Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México City, 04510, México
M. del Castillo-Mussot: Instituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México City, 04510, México
A. P. Riascos: Instituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México City, 04510, México
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Eric Hernández Ramírez ()

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2020, vol. 31, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: In every country except China, COVID-19 first infection cases were imported by travelers, which are either people coming back to their own country or visiting foreigners (international or external tourists). In a global and regional phenomenological analysis of COVID-19 spread, we assume that tourism inflow is a trigger mechanism of worldwide dissemination at the pandemic onset days. Taking into account all countries, a convenient common-time origin timeline was employed as if the beginning of the epidemic would have occurred simultaneously in every country. We obtained very good statistical Pearson and Spearman correlations between accumulated infected cases by country and a positive power of the product TP, where T is the tourism inflow before the pandemic and P is the country population.

Keywords: COVID-19; diffusion; human mobility; scaling laws (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183120501533

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