Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas-Brazil via an adaptive SIR model

I. F. F. Dos Santos, G. M. A. Almeida and F. A. B. F. De Moura
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I. F. F. Dos Santos: Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57072-970, Brazil
G. M. A. Almeida: Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57072-970, Brazil
F. A. B. F. De Moura: Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, AL, 57072-970, Brazil

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2021, vol. 32, issue 03, 1-6

Abstract: We investigate the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas, northeast of Brazil, via an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamic recuperation and propagation rates. Input parameters are defined based on data made available by Alagoas Secretary of Health from April 19, 2020 on. We provide with the evolution of the basic reproduction number R0 and reproduce the historical series of the number of confirmed cases with less than 10% error. We offer predictions, from November 16 forward, over the epidemic situation in the near future and show that it will keep decelerating. Furthermore, the same model can be used to study the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great easiness and accuracy.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; SIR model; epidemic dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183121500406

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