Spatial interference between infectious hotspots: Epidemic condensation and optimal windspeed

Johannes Dieplinger and Sauro Succi
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Johannes Dieplinger: Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, Piazza dei Cavalieri, Pisa, Italy
Sauro Succi: Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, Piazza dei Cavalieri, Pisa, Italy2Center for Life Nanosciences at La Sapienza, Italian Institute of Technology, Roma, Italy3Physics Department, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2021, vol. 32, issue 04, 1-10

Abstract: We discuss the effects of spatial interference between two infectious hotspots as a function of the mobility of individuals (wind speed) between the two and their relative degree of infectivity. As long as the upstream hotspot is less contagious than the downstream one, increasing the wind speed leads to a monotonic decrease of the infection peak in the downstream hotspot. Once the upstream hotspot becomes about between twice and five times more infectious than the downstream one, an optimal wind speed emerges, whereby a local minimum peak intensity is attained in the downstream hotspot, along with a local maximum beyond which the beneficial effect of the wind is restored. Since this nonmonotonic trend is reminiscent of the equation of state of nonideal fluids, we dub the above phenomena “epidemic condensation”. When the relative infectivity of the upstream hotspot exceeds about a factor five, the beneficial effect of the wind above the optimal speed is completely lost: any wind speed above the optimal one leads to a higher infection peak. It is also found that spatial correlation between the two hotspots decay much more slowly than their inverse distance. It is hoped that the above findings may offer a qualitative clue for optimal confinement policies between different cities and urban agglomerates.

Keywords: Population dynamics; SIR model; interference; nonlinearity; pattern formation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183121500443

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