No lockdown policy for COVID-19 epidemic in Bangladesh: Good, bad or ugly?

M. Arifuzzaman (), Zakaria Shams Siam (), Md. Harunur Rashid () and Md. Shariful Islam
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M. Arifuzzaman: Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh
Zakaria Shams Siam: #x2020;Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh
Md. Harunur Rashid: Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh
Md. Shariful Islam: Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Bashundhara, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2021, vol. 32, issue 05, 1-7

Abstract: Bangladesh has been combating the COVID-19 pandemic with limited financial resources and poor health infrastructure since March, 2020. Although the government has imposed several restricted measures to curb the progression of the outbreak, these arrays of measures are not sustainable in the long run. In this paper, we use a data-driven forecasting model considering susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and deaths status through time to assess the impact of lift of flexible lockdown on the COVID-19 dynamics in Bangladesh. Our analysis demonstrates that the country might experience second infection peak in six to seven months after the withdrawal of current lockdown. Moreover, a prolonged restrictions until January, 2021 will shift the infection peak towards August, 2021 and reduce approximately 20% COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh.

Keywords: COVID-19; SEIRD model; lockdown; Bangladesh (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183121500625

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