Development of a probabilistic model for quantitative risk assessment of COVID-19 in Brazil

Paulo Gabriel Santos Campos de Siqueira, Alexandre Calumbi Antunes de Oliveira, Heitor Oliveira Duarte and Márcio das Chagas Moura
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Paulo Gabriel Santos Campos de Siqueira: Center for Risk Analysis, Realiability Engineering and Environmental Modeling (CEERMA), Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil†Industrial Engineering Department, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE Brazil§Paulo Gabriel Santos Campos de Siqueira, Acadêmico Hélio Ramos Street, s/n, Cidade Universitária, CEP, 50740-530 Recife, PE Brazil
Alexandre Calumbi Antunes de Oliveira: #x2021;Mechanical Engineering Department, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE Brazil
Heitor Oliveira Duarte: #x2021;Mechanical Engineering Department, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE Brazil
Márcio das Chagas Moura: Center for Risk Analysis, Realiability Engineering and Environmental Modeling (CEERMA), Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil†Industrial Engineering Department, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE Brazil

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2021, vol. 32, issue 05, 1-26

Abstract: We have developed a probabilistic model to quantify the risks of COVID-19 explosion in Brazil, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Latin America. By explosion, we mean an excessive number of new infections that would overload the public health system. We made predictions from July 12th to Oct 10th, 2020 for various containment strategies, including business as usual, stay at home (SAH) for young and elderly, flight restrictions among regions, gradual resumption of business and the compulsory wearing of masks. They indicate that: if a SAH strategy were sustained, there would be a negligible risk of explosion and the public health system would not be overloaded. For the other containment strategies, the scenario that combines the gradual resumption of business with the mandatory wearing of masks would be the most effective, reducing risk to considerable category. Should this strategy is applied together with the investment in more Intensive Care Unit beds, risk could be reduced to negligible levels. A sensitivity analysis sustained that risks would be negligible if SAH measures were adopted thoroughly.

Keywords: Novel coronavirus; COVID-19; quantitative microbial risk assessment; probabilistic modeling; containment strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183121500698

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