Modeling the coupling between a COVID-19-like epidemic and the economy

Matthieu Aucouturier and Hans J. Herrmann
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Matthieu Aucouturier: PMMH, ESPCI, CNRS UMR 7636, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005 Paris, France
Hans J. Herrmann: PMMH, ESPCI, CNRS UMR 7636, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005 Paris, France†Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Campus do Pici, 60455-760 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2021, vol. 32, issue 11, 1-13

Abstract: We consider a compartmental model adapted to the case of COVID-19 that takes into account the detection of ill individuals and the cost of medical treatment and investigate the effect of a budget constraint. Our analysis shows how the collapse of the budget can drastically change the outcome of an epidemics. We see how with a good testing policy the epidemic might be controllable. By introducing a lockdown period, we show that the final number of deaths can be reduced substantially and observe that a budget collapse introduces rather extreme effects. We find that there exists a well-defined optimal starting point for a lockdown. We also looked at the consequences of a loss of immunity and found that then a budget collapse can occur for smaller costs of medical treatment.

Keywords: Epidemic spreading; COVID-19; budget collapse; lockdown (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183121501503

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