Statistical properties of the aftershocks of stock market crashes revisited: Analysis based on the 1987 crash, financial-crisis-2008 and COVID-19 pandemic

Anish Rai, Ajit Mahata (), Md Nurujjaman () and Om Prakash ()
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Anish Rai: Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim 737139, India
Ajit Mahata: Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim 737139, India
Md Nurujjaman: Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim 737139, India
Om Prakash: Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim 737139, India

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2022, vol. 33, issue 02, 1-17

Abstract: During any unique crisis, panic sell-off leads to a massive stock market crash that may continue for more than a day, termed as mainshock. The effect of a mainshock in the form of aftershocks can be felt throughout the recovery phase of stock price. As the market remains in stress during recovery, any small perturbation leads to a relatively smaller aftershock. The duration of the recovery phase has been estimated using structural break analysis. We have carried out statistical analyses of 1987 stock market crash, 2008 financial crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic considering the actual crash times of the mainshock and aftershocks. Earlier, such analyses were done considering absolute one-day return, which cannot capture a crash properly. The results show that the mainshock and aftershock in the stock market follow the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) power law. Further, we obtained higher β value for the COVID-19 crash compared to the financial-crisis-2008 from the GR law. This implies that the recovery of stock price during COVID-19 may be faster than the financial-crisis-2008. The result is consistent with the present recovery of the market from the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis shows that the high-magnitude aftershocks are rare, and low-magnitude aftershocks are frequent during the recovery phase. The analysis also shows that the inter-occurrence times of the aftershocks follow the generalized Pareto distribution, i.e. P(τi)∠1[1+λ(q−1)τi]1(q−1), where λ and q are constants and τi is the inter-occurrence time. This analysis may help investors to restructure their portfolio during a market crash.

Keywords: Market crash; Gutenberg–Richter power law; structural break; financial crisis-2008; the COVID-19 pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1142/S012918312250019X

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