Global dynamics of GDP and trade

Abhin Kakkad () and Arnab K. Ray
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Abhin Kakkad: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015, Gujarat, India
Arnab K. Ray: Dhirubhai Ambani Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Gandhinagar 382007, Gujarat, India

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2023, vol. 34, issue 02, 1-16

Abstract: We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modeling of the economic data, which are made available by the World Bank, we predict the maximum values of the growth of GDP and trade, as well as the duration over which exponential growth can be sustained. We set up the correlated growth of GDP and trade as the phase solutions of an autonomous second-order dynamical system. GDP and trade are related to each other by a power law, whose exponent seems to differentiate the six national economies into two types. Under conducive conditions for economic growth, our conclusions have general validity.

Keywords: Economics; econophysics; nonlinear dynamics; systems obeying scaling laws; dynamics of social systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183123500201

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