Risk countermeasures of international wheat trade under the network reconstruction

Jinlong Ma, Meng Li and Junfang Niu
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Jinlong Ma: School of Information Science and Engineering, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018, P. R. China2Hebei Technology Innovation Center of Intelligent IoT, Shijiazhuang 050018, P. R. China
Meng Li: School of Information Science and Engineering, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang 050018, P. R. China2Hebei Technology Innovation Center of Intelligent IoT, Shijiazhuang 050018, P. R. China
Junfang Niu: Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, P. R. China

International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), 2023, vol. 34, issue 11, 1-18

Abstract: In today’s globalized world, grain is not only food, but also a strategic weapon, a trump card in the game of nations. As one of the three staple grains, international trade of wheat faces high supply risk. Each country should not only pay attention to the ways in which trade risks are spread, but also pay high attention to how resources are reallocated between countries to reduce losses from supply risks. Therefore, based on complex network theory and global wheat trade data, we construct an international wheat trade network (IWTN) and analyze the feedback of network robustness under random and targeted attacks. Then, we propose a global wheat trade redistribution model through the maximum entropy principle to simulate the resource redistribution among wheat trading countries under different supply risks. Finally, changes in trade relations among major countries are analyzed. The results of the study provide an important reference for the recovery of national resources after wheat supply risk and new ideas for researchers related to international trade.

Keywords: Complex networks; maximum entropy principle; reconfiguration of the network; robustness; global wheat trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0129183123501450

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